View Draw
Carlos Alcaraz
To Win first set
Lorenzo Musetti
To Win first set
Carlos Alcaraz
To win 2-0
Lorenzo Musetti
To win 2-0
Lorenzo Musetti
To win 2-1
Carlos Alcaraz
To win 2-1
over 20
Games
Prediction of Lorenzo Musetti [16th] vs Carlos Alcaraz [3rd] Head-to-Head At The 2025 Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (04-13-25)
By Wojtek Kolan - April 13, 2025
Next playing in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo | Final
Clay COURT
Sunday
11:00 AM (CET)
Kolkata
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Form
W L W W L W W W W W
Form
W W W W L L W W W WMusetti vs. Alcaraz Prediction
Calculated from the implied probability from the match winner, Alcaraz has a 74.63% chance to win this match.
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| Prediction | Chance To Win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 74.63 % |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 26.18 % |
|
Above is implied from odds. Login now to reveal our expert picks. |
Head-To-Head: Musetti 1 - 4 Alcaraz
They've faced off in 13 sets, with Musetti triumphing in 3 and Alcaraz in 10. In their latest encounter at the Miami Open on March 26, 2024, Alcaraz secured a 6-3, 6-3 win. Will Musetti manage to turn the tables in their next match?
| Players | Head-To-Head Match Wins |
|---|---|
| Lorenzo Musetti | 1 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 4 |
| Musetti | Stats | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| 75% (12-4) | YTD Win/Loss | 83% (19-4) |
| 1 | Head-to-Head | 4 |
| 16 | Ranking | 3 |
| 15 | Highest Rank | 1 |
| 23 | Age | 21 |
| R | Plays | R |
| 6 | Titles | 25 |
| 59% (235-166) | Career Total W/L | 79% (308-80) |
| $5,530,905 | Career Prize Money | $27,130,380 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 1 |
| 0 | Hard H2H | 2 |
| 1 | Clay H2H | 2 |
| 0 | Indoor H2H | 0 |
| 0 | Grass H2H | 0 |
Who Do Our Users Think Will Win?
Who will win?
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Total votes: 600+
83.33%
16.67%
1
Your Vote
13 Apr 2025 / Final
Carlos Alcaraz implied favourite from odds → 74.63%
ODDS
OUR PREDICTION
Edge
Recent Performance Stats (Last 6 Months)
| Winning Player | Losing Player | Score | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-3 6-3 |
Stats 
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Lorenzo Musetti
64%
(
35 of
55)
1st Serve %
68%
(
40 of
59)
3
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
0
74%
(
26 of
35)
1st Serve Won
63%
(
25 of
40)
55%
(
11 of
20)
2nd Serve Won
37%
(
7 of
19)
36%
(
4 of
11)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
33%
(
18 of
55)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
27 of
59)
64
Total Points Won
50
|
||||
| 6-2 6-2 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Lorenzo Musetti
68%
(
36 of
53)
1st Serve %
52%
(
22 of
42)
1
Aces
2
3
Double Faults
1
67%
(
24 of
36)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
15 of
22)
65%
(
11 of
17)
2nd Serve Won
35%
(
7 of
20)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
3)
34%
(
18 of
53)
Rtn Points Won
48%
(
20 of
42)
55
Total Points Won
40
|
||||
| 6-3 6-2 6-2 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Lorenzo Musetti
73%
(
56 of
77)
1st Serve %
60%
(
53 of
88)
6
Aces
2
3
Double Faults
4
77%
(
43 of
56)
1st Serve Won
51%
(
27 of
53)
48%
(
10 of
21)
2nd Serve Won
43%
(
15 of
35)
50%
(
7 of
14)
Break Points Won
29%
(
2 of
7)
31%
(
24 of
77)
Rtn Points Won
52%
(
46 of
88)
99
Total Points Won
66
|
||||
| 6-4 6-7(6) 6-4 |
Stats
Lorenzo Musetti
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
60%
(
59 of
99)
1st Serve %
67%
(
64 of
96)
1
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
78%
(
46 of
59)
1st Serve Won
66%
(
42 of
64)
53%
(
21 of
40)
2nd Serve Won
66%
(
21 of
32)
67%
(
4 of
6)
Break Points Won
40%
(
2 of
5)
32%
(
32 of
99)
Rtn Points Won
34%
(
33 of
96)
100
Total Points Won
95
|
||||
| 7-5 2-6 6-3 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Lorenzo Musetti
74%
(
64 of
87)
1st Serve %
62%
(
65 of
105)
0
Aces
0
4
Double Faults
3
61%
(
39 of
64)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
40 of
65)
43%
(
10 of
23)
2nd Serve Won
40%
(
16 of
40)
35%
(
6 of
17)
Break Points Won
83%
(
5 of
6)
44%
(
38 of
87)
Rtn Points Won
47%
(
49 of
105)
98
Total Points Won
94
|
||||
| Stats | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | H2H Matches | 4 |
| 3 | Sets Won | 10 |
| 49 | Games Won | 72 |
| 6 | Aces (Total) | 12 |
| 10 | Total Double Faults | 14 |
| 1:59:14 | Average Match Time | 1:59:14 |
| 61% (239/393) | 1st Serve % | 69% (255/368) |
| 64% (153/239) | 1st Serve Win % | 68% (174/255) |
| 43% (66/154) | 2nd Serve Win % | 56% (63/113) |
| 48% (12/25) | Break Points Won % (Total) | 44% (23/52) |
| 36% (131/368) | Return Points Win % | 44% (174/393) |
| 25% (1/4) | Best of 3 Sets Win % | 75% (3/4) |
| 0% (0/1) | Best of 5 Sets Win % | 100% (1/1) |
| 0% (0/1) | Tiebreaks Win % (Total) | 100% (1/1) |
| 50% (1/2) | Deciding Set Win % | 50% (1/2) |
| 100% (1/1) | 1st Set Won, Won Match | 100% (4/4) |
| 0% (1/0) | 1st Set Won, Lost Match | 0% (4/0) |
| 0% (4/0) | 1st Set Lost, Won Match | 0% (1/0) |
Current Event Stats
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
Clay| Stats | ||
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Total Matches | 4 |
| 0:00:00 | Last Match | 2:09:05 |
| 8:53:51 | Total Time | 7:37:06 |
| 0.08 | Aces Per Game | 0.09 |
| 5 | Aces Total | 4 |
| 0.05 | Double Faults Per Game | 0.29 |
| 3 | Total Double Faults | 13 |
| 74% (234/318) | 1st Serve % | 60% (186/309) |
| 66% (155/234) | 1st Serve Win % | 66% (123/186) |
| 62% (52/84) | 2nd Serve Win % | 56% (69/123) |
| 33% (13/40) | Total Break Points Won % | 40% (19/48) |
| 64% (16/25) | Total Break Points Saved | 74% (26/35) |
| 82% (42/51) | Service Hold (%) | 80% (37/46) |
| 75% (38/51) | Opponent Hold % | 59% (27/46) |
| 42% (152/359) | Return Points Win % | 47% (151/319) |
| 53% (359/677) | Total Points Won | 55% (343/628) |
| 100% (1/0) | Tiebreak Win % | 100% (1/1) |
| 100% (4/3) | Deciding Set Win % | 100% (2/2) |
| 0.00 | Tiebreaks Per Match | 0.25 |
| 100% (1/1) | 1st Set Won, Won Match | 100% (2/2) |
| 100% (4/4) | 1st Set Lost, Won Match | 100% (2/2) |
Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz Important H2H Prediction Stats:
Head-to-head: Musetti 1 - 4 Alcaraz
Editorial Prediction:
As the tennis world anticipates the next clash between Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz, a deeper look into their stats paints a telling picture of their form. How are they faring on their second serve, and what could this mean for their upcoming match? Musetti has the edge with 44.28% points won on his second serve over the past six months compared to Alcaraz's 42.28%. This might seem like a minor difference but holds significant implications for predicting the match's outcome.
What about their performance in return games? Musetti again leads, securing 47.68% of points when returning his opponents' second serves, against Alcaraz’s 42.02%. For first serve returns, Musetti claims 29.63% while Alcaraz has 26.67%. These numbers often determine who holds the upper hand in head-to-head confrontations.
Under pressure, every point counts. Musetti has demonstrated a knack for saving breakpoints at a rate of 61.58%, surpassing Alcaraz’s 54.58%. This skill is critical when predicting in-game turns and betting strategies. On a broader scale, Musetti’s win-loss record of 68.06% pales in comparison to Alcaraz’s impressive 81.69% over the last year, offering a head-to-head landscape prediction.
When comparing their surface prowess, Musetti thrives on clay, with a 66% career win rate. In contrast, Alcaraz shines brightest on grass, boasting an 89% win record. However, both players struggle on indoor hard courts, with Musetti at 46% and Alcaraz at 70%. Knowing their preferred surfaces can tip the scales when making forecasts.
The level of competition each has faced also influences outcomes. Musetti's dominance on the Main tour contrasts with Alcaraz’s experience in the Masters series, with win rates of 69.23% and 71.43%, respectively. Their head-to-head record further underscores Alcaraz’s dominance, winning four of their five encounters and leading in sets 10 to 3.
Can we predict what happens if the match goes the distance? In deciding sets, Musetti has excelled with an 81% win rate over the past year, surpassing Alcaraz's 67%. However, when looking at their head-to-head fifth sets, they are tied, each winning one. Their execution under extreme pressure, like in tiebreaks, slightly favors Alcaraz, who won their only tiebreak bout.
Addressing the quality of their opponents, over the last 12 months, Musetti faced an average opponent ranked 57.71, while Alcaraz's foes had an average rank of 54.35. This subtle difference could influence match predictions, particularly in the ongoing tournament context.
The capacity to convert breakpoints can be game-changing. Musetti manages to capitalize on 34.85% of his opportunities, towering over Alcaraz's 27.97%. Such stats become vital when predicting the direction of in-game moments.
Weaving together these intricate threads of statistics, the forecast leans toward Carlos Alcaraz as the more likely victor. His overall dominance in their head-to-head battles, combined with consistent performance stats, suggests he might inch past Musetti once more in this riveting contest.
Lorenzo Musetti Recent Matches Played
Before:
| OPPONENT | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 1-6 6-4 7-6(4) | H2H | |||
| QF |
Stats
Lorenzo Musetti
Player
Stefanos Tsitsipas
74%
(
75 of
102)
1st Serve %
49%
(
42 of
85)
1
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
7
63%
(
47 of
75)
1st Serve Won
67%
(
28 of
42)
56%
(
15 of
27)
2nd Serve Won
53%
(
23 of
43)
50%
(
3 of
6)
Break Points Won
18%
(
3 of
17)
39%
(
40 of
102)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
34 of
85)
96
Total Points Won
91
|
1-6 6-3 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Lorenzo Musetti
Player
Matteo Berrettini
74%
(
37 of
50)
1st Serve %
68%
(
46 of
68)
0
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
2
73%
(
27 of
37)
1st Serve Won
67%
(
31 of
46)
77%
(
10 of
13)
2nd Serve Won
32%
(
7 of
22)
30%
(
3 of
10)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
26%
(
13 of
50)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
30 of
68)
67
Total Points Won
51
|
6-3 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Lorenzo Musetti
Player
Jiri Lehecka
70%
(
53 of
76)
1st Serve %
57%
(
60 of
105)
3
Aces
4
0
Double Faults
8
60%
(
32 of
53)
1st Serve Won
67%
(
40 of
60)
70%
(
16 of
23)
2nd Serve Won
38%
(
17 of
45)
22%
(
4 of
18)
Break Points Won
67%
(
4 of
6)
37%
(
28 of
76)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
48 of
105)
96
Total Points Won
85
|
1-6 7-5 6-2 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Lorenzo Musetti
Player
Bu Yunchaokete
77%
(
69 of
90)
1st Serve %
55%
(
56 of
101)
1
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
3
71%
(
49 of
69)
1st Serve Won
70%
(
39 of
56)
52%
(
11 of
21)
2nd Serve Won
49%
(
22 of
45)
50%
(
3 of
6)
Break Points Won
100%
(
2 of
2)
33%
(
30 of
90)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
40 of
101)
100
Total Points Won
91
|
4-6 7-5 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Novak Djokovic
Player
Lorenzo Musetti
70%
(
32 of
46)
1st Serve %
70%
(
39 of
56)
1
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
3
75%
(
24 of
32)
1st Serve Won
51%
(
20 of
39)
57%
(
8 of
14)
2nd Serve Won
35%
(
6 of
17)
42%
(
5 of
12)
Break Points Won
100%
(
1 of
1)
30%
(
14 of
46)
Rtn Points Won
54%
(
30 of
56)
62
Total Points Won
40
|
6-2 6-2 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Lorenzo Musetti
Player
Felix Auger Aliassime
65%
(
60 of
93)
1st Serve %
78%
(
70 of
90)
1
Aces
11
1
Double Faults
4
67%
(
40 of
60)
1st Serve Won
66%
(
46 of
70)
61%
(
20 of
33)
2nd Serve Won
40%
(
8 of
20)
29%
(
4 of
14)
Break Points Won
25%
(
2 of
8)
35%
(
33 of
93)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
36 of
90)
96
Total Points Won
87
|
4-6 6-2 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Lorenzo Musetti
Player
Quentin Halys
66%
(
79 of
120)
1st Serve %
58%
(
61 of
105)
4
Aces
17
3
Double Faults
7
67%
(
53 of
79)
1st Serve Won
82%
(
50 of
61)
61%
(
25 of
41)
2nd Serve Won
45%
(
20 of
44)
33%
(
2 of
6)
Break Points Won
40%
(
2 of
5)
35%
(
42 of
120)
Rtn Points Won
33%
(
35 of
105)
113
Total Points Won
112
|
3-6 7-6(4) 7-5 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Arthur Fils
Player
Lorenzo Musetti
63%
(
65 of
103)
1st Serve %
60%
(
54 of
90)
6
Aces
6
3
Double Faults
3
68%
(
44 of
65)
1st Serve Won
70%
(
38 of
54)
53%
(
20 of
38)
2nd Serve Won
53%
(
19 of
36)
50%
(
3 of
6)
Break Points Won
57%
(
4 of
7)
38%
(
39 of
103)
Rtn Points Won
37%
(
33 of
90)
97
Total Points Won
96
|
3-6 7-6(4) 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Lorenzo Musetti
Player
Roman Safiullin
64%
(
68 of
107)
1st Serve %
57%
(
57 of
100)
5
Aces
2
4
Double Faults
7
68%
(
46 of
68)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
34 of
57)
44%
(
17 of
39)
2nd Serve Won
47%
(
20 of
43)
50%
(
6 of
12)
Break Points Won
50%
(
4 of
8)
41%
(
44 of
107)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
46 of
100)
109
Total Points Won
98
|
7-5 5-7 6-2 | H2H | ||
view more
Carlos Alcaraz Recent Matches Played
Before:
| OPPONENT | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
66%
(
48 of
73)
1st Serve %
68%
(
74 of
109)
0
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
3
65%
(
31 of
48)
1st Serve Won
64%
(
47 of
74)
64%
(
16 of
25)
2nd Serve Won
34%
(
12 of
35)
16%
(
3 of
19)
Break Points Won
29%
(
2 of
7)
36%
(
26 of
73)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
50 of
109)
97
Total Points Won
85
|
7-6(2) 6-4 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Arthur Fils
61%
(
62 of
101)
1st Serve %
60%
(
62 of
103)
3
Aces
0
7
Double Faults
5
69%
(
43 of
62)
1st Serve Won
73%
(
45 of
62)
49%
(
19 of
39)
2nd Serve Won
32%
(
13 of
41)
36%
(
5 of
14)
Break Points Won
36%
(
4 of
11)
39%
(
39 of
101)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
45 of
103)
107
Total Points Won
97
|
4-6 7-5 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Daniel Altmaier
59%
(
35 of
59)
1st Serve %
46%
(
24 of
52)
0
Aces
0
2
Double Faults
2
60%
(
21 of
35)
1st Serve Won
50%
(
12 of
24)
63%
(
15 of
24)
2nd Serve Won
46%
(
13 of
28)
71%
(
5 of
7)
Break Points Won
10%
(
1 of
10)
39%
(
23 of
59)
Rtn Points Won
52%
(
27 of
52)
63
Total Points Won
48
|
6-3 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Francisco Cerundolo
54%
(
41 of
76)
1st Serve %
60%
(
33 of
55)
1
Aces
2
3
Double Faults
5
68%
(
28 of
41)
1st Serve Won
52%
(
17 of
33)
54%
(
19 of
35)
2nd Serve Won
41%
(
9 of
22)
75%
(
6 of
8)
Break Points Won
29%
(
2 of
7)
38%
(
29 of
76)
Rtn Points Won
53%
(
29 of
55)
76
Total Points Won
55
|
3-6 6-0 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
David Goffin
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
65%
(
58 of
89)
1st Serve %
67%
(
67 of
100)
3
Aces
8
2
Double Faults
2
69%
(
40 of
58)
1st Serve Won
64%
(
43 of
67)
55%
(
17 of
31)
2nd Serve Won
55%
(
18 of
33)
57%
(
4 of
7)
Break Points Won
40%
(
2 of
5)
36%
(
32 of
89)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
39 of
100)
96
Total Points Won
93
|
5-7 6-4 6-3 | H2H | ||
| SF |
Stats
Jack Draper
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
68%
(
47 of
69)
1st Serve %
56%
(
39 of
70)
4
Aces
3
2
Double Faults
4
64%
(
30 of
47)
1st Serve Won
64%
(
25 of
39)
50%
(
11 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
45%
(
14 of
31)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
44%
(
4 of
9)
41%
(
28 of
69)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
31 of
70)
72
Total Points Won
67
|
6-1 0-6 6-4 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Francisco Cerundolo
66%
(
48 of
73)
1st Serve %
78%
(
57 of
73)
5
Aces
1
5
Double Faults
4
75%
(
36 of
48)
1st Serve Won
67%
(
38 of
57)
60%
(
15 of
25)
2nd Serve Won
31%
(
5 of
16)
67%
(
2 of
3)
Break Points Won
11%
(
1 of
9)
30%
(
22 of
73)
Rtn Points Won
41%
(
30 of
73)
81
Total Points Won
65
|
6-3 7-6(4) | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Grigor Dimitrov
75%
(
30 of
40)
1st Serve %
54%
(
34 of
63)
6
Aces
1
2
Double Faults
4
77%
(
23 of
30)
1st Serve Won
50%
(
17 of
34)
70%
(
7 of
10)
2nd Serve Won
38%
(
11 of
29)
36%
(
5 of
14)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
3)
25%
(
10 of
40)
Rtn Points Won
56%
(
35 of
63)
65
Total Points Won
38
|
6-1 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Denis Shapovalov
71%
(
45 of
63)
1st Serve %
53%
(
31 of
59)
2
Aces
2
5
Double Faults
8
69%
(
31 of
45)
1st Serve Won
74%
(
23 of
31)
56%
(
10 of
18)
2nd Serve Won
36%
(
10 of
28)
50%
(
4 of
8)
Break Points Won
25%
(
1 of
4)
35%
(
22 of
63)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
26 of
59)
67
Total Points Won
55
|
6-2 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Quentin Halys
44%
(
21 of
48)
1st Serve %
63%
(
31 of
49)
7
Aces
2
3
Double Faults
0
95%
(
20 of
21)
1st Serve Won
74%
(
23 of
31)
63%
(
17 of
27)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
9 of
18)
60%
(
3 of
5)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
1)
23%
(
11 of
48)
Rtn Points Won
35%
(
17 of
49)
54
Total Points Won
43
|
6-4 6-2 | H2H | ||
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Where To Watch Musetti vs Alcaraz?
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Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents
| Stats | ||
|---|---|---|
| 66% (128/67) | Win/Loss | 81% (147/35) |
| 61% (289/181) | Sets Win/Loss | 72% (332/126) |
| 54% (2385/2014) | Games Win/Loss | 57% (2522/1871) |
| 0.19 | Aces Per Game | 0.17 |
| 412 | Aces Total | 362 |
| 0.16 | Double Faults Per Game | 0.18 |
| 333 | Total Double Faults | 384 |
| 1:44:17 | Average Match Time | 1:50:51 |
| 259.3 | Average Opponent Rank | 252.97 |
| 66% (8811/13438) | 1st Serve % | 67% (8760/13129) |
| 67% (5881/8811) | 1st Serve Win % | 67% (5860/8760) |
| 52% (2430/4636) | 2nd Serve Win % | 54% (2373/4369) |
| 46% (685/1475) | Break Points Won % (Total) | 45% (732/1630) |
| 42% (5872/13873) | Return Points Win % | 44% (5993/13608) |
| 66% (117/178) | Best of 3 Sets Win % | 81% (129/160) |
| 63% (10/16) | Best of 5 Sets Win % | 86% (18/21) |
| 65% (36/55) | Tiebreaks Win % (Total) | 66% (45/68) |
| 66% (40/61) | Deciding Set Win % | 73% (49/67) |
| 86% (118/102) | 1st Set Won, Won Match | 93% (132/123) |
| 14% (118/16) | 1st Set Won, Lost Match | 7% (132/9) |
| 32% (77/25) | 1st Set Lost, Won Match | 49% (49/24) |
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